← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 87% | 93% | 1.12 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 10% | 5% | 10.10 | fair |
| Setubal win | 3% | 3% | 29.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 322.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1920.10 | 1435.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.05 | -28.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| league points | 73.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.52 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.93 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |