← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniao Madeira win | 40% | 32% | 2.46 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 36% | 3.23 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.12 | 1535.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.90 | 16.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 26.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.34 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |