← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 69% | 81% | 1.41 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.94 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 11% | 6% | 8.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 656.00 | 1294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1809.36 | 1555.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -51.38 | 27.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 61.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |