← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 26% | 29% | 3.69 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 413.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1492.43 | 1537.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.65 | -59.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.38 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |