← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 81% | 76% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.20 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 10% | 17.65 | value: +71% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 777.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1462.92 | 1843.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.54 | 8.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 29.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.45 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |