← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Mon, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 28% | 25% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1380.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1538.99 | 1550.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.74 | -41.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |