← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 38% | 57% | 2.58 | value: +48% ⚠ |
| Belenenses win | 33% | 21% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.64 | 1512.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.84 | 13.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| state index | -1.02 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |