← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 67% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.70 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 12% | 13% | 7.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 284.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1519.53 | 1825.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.69 | -32.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 36.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.18 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |