← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 76% | 80% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.01 | fair |
| Academica win | 8% | 7% | 12.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1418.01 | 1918.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.13 | 20.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.50 |
| state index | -0.60 | 2.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |