← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 39% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1285.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1455.60 | 1547.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.62 | 17.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |