← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniao Madeira win | 38% | 41% | 2.57 | value: +6% |
| Setubal win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.84 | 1443.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.83 | -32.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.96 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| state index | -0.64 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |