← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 32% | 30% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.34 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 764.00 | 1372.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1466.34 | 1529.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.04 | 4.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.44 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |