← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 47% | 48% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
| Academica win | 24% | 23% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1542.50 | 1423.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.58 | -11.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |