← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 41% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.23 | 1520.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.28 | 15.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 13.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |