← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 40% | 47% | 2.41 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.15 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1266.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1545.46 | 1563.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.34 | -29.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |