← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 68% | 75% | 1.44 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 15% | 4.36 | fair |
| Boavista win | 10% | 10% | 9.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1266.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.05 | 1911.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.73 | 4.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.46 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |