← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 78% | 78% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.06 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 6% | 7% | 17.64 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 262.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1829.97 | 1547.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.73 | 48.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.58 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |