← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 77% | 74% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 5.98 | fair |
| Setubal win | 7% | 10% | 14.13 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1445.89 | 1841.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.49 | -0.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 28.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.23 |
| state index | -0.96 | 1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |