← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 52% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +4% |
| Maritimo win | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1356.00 | 383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1521.74 | 1486.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.17 | -17.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |