← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 46% | 45% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.36 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 25% | 30% | 3.96 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 103.00 | 256.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1496.85 | 1689.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.92 | 32.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.88 |
| state index | -0.71 | 1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |