← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 50% | 51% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
| Setubal win | 23% | 24% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1559.52 | 1472.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.19 | -20.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 38.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.12 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |