← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 85% | 87% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 8% | 8.71 | fair |
| Uniao Madeira win | 4% | 5% | 24.64 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Uniao Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 620.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1840.32 | 1470.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.08 | -29.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 55.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |