← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 69% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.70 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 10% | 16% | 9.50 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1350.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1565.60 | 1825.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.38 | -13.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 33.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.36 |
| state index | 0.58 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |