← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 48% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Boavista win | 23% | 21% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 376.00 | 1257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1511.06 | 1428.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.31 | -7.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 29.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.65 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |