← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 37% | 36% | 2.61 | fair |
| Uniao Madeira win | 33% | 32% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.24 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1472.02 | 1495.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.59 | -2.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |