← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 38% | 43% | 2.56 | value: +10% |
| CD Tondela win | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 96.00 | 249.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1409.70 | 1532.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.93 | 52.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 13.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |