← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 40% | 44% | 2.45 | value: +7% |
| Moreirense FC win | 31% | 28% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.84 | 1453.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.80 | -17.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |