← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 38% | 37% | 2.54 | fair |
| Academica win | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1435.35 | 1617.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.06 | 9.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 19.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |