← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 42% | 40% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.19 | fair |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1835.01 | 1900.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.39 | 1.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| league points | 59.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 2.42 |
| state index | 1.27 | 1.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |