← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 37% | 2.29 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 37% | 3.32 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 247.00 | 369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1518.65 | 1509.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.85 | -6.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |