← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Mon, Feb 29, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 87% | 89% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.91 | fair |
| Uniao Madeira win | 3% | 3% | 30.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Uniao Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 273.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1898.31 | 1473.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.99 | -19.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| league points | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.04 |
| state index | 1.76 | -0.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |