← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 49% | 44% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 22% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 729.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1466.97 | 1396.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.25 | -31.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 23.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| state index | -0.73 | -1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |