← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 70% | 69% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 11% | 14% | 9.00 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 607.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.85 | 1857.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.14 | 3.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 28.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.26 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |