← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 47% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Setubal win | 25% | 24% | 3.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1336.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1536.42 | 1475.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 27.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |