← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 39% | 31% | 2.52 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 31% | 37% | 3.18 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1244.00 | 1336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.99 | 1538.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.76 | 18.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |