← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1243.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1512.69 | 1534.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.74 | -25.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |