← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 41% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| CD Tondela win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 82.00 | 357.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1405.29 | 1493.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.45 | -37.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| league points | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.85 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |