← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 58% | 64% | 1.68 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.09 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 18% | 15% | 5.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 235.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1675.53 | 1588.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.18 | 16.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.45 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |