← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 40% | 35% | 2.41 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 31% | 37% | 3.17 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.17 | 1511.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.57 | -24.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |