← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belenenses win | 37% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.15 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Belenenses | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 82.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1516.56 | 1512.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.87 | 18.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |