← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 73% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.60 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 9% | 10% | 10.34 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 234.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1538.87 | 1893.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.27 | 0.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.91 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.36 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |