← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Fri, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uniao Madeira win | 34% | 32% | 2.83 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 36% | 2.94 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Uniao Madeira | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1473.67 | 1536.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.66 | 4.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.05 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |