← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Mon, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 47% | 50% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.33 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 23% | 22% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1324.00 | 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1525.91 | 1537.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.35 | -16.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |