← Primeira Liga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 14, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 49% | 51% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.18 | fair |
| Uniao Madeira win | 20% | 18% | 4.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Uniao Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 228.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.97 | 1487.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.76 | 0.04 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 28.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.10 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |