← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 71% | 72% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.19 | value: +9% |
| Setubal win | 11% | 7% | 9.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 326.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1609.00 | 1435.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -49.29 | -13.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 55.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |