← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 47% | 40% | 2.08 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 27% | 29% | 3.67 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.68 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 964.00 | 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1567.85 | 1521.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.72 | 24.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 44.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |