← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 89% | 1.17 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 12% | 7% | 8.45 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 5% | 4% | 18.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2152.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1903.76 | 1558.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.09 | 34.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| league points | 82.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.33 |
| state index | 1.71 | 0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |