← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sat, May 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 43% | 34% | 2.26 | fair |
| Academica win | 29% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +24% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1466.94 | 1565.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.37 | 34.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 29.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |