← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Fri, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 91% | 91% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 6% | 15.41 | fair |
| Penafiel win | 2% | 3% | 40.24 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 325.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1873.17 | 1321.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.25 | -4.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.25 |
| league points | 79.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 0.67 |
| state index | 1.50 | -1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |