← Primeira Liga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 42% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.97 | fair |
| FC Arouca win | 25% | 27% | 3.93 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1427.48 | 1434.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.94 | -9.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 0.88 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |